Scientists are raising urgent alarms about a rapidly developing El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean that could push global temperatures to levels never before recorded — and the consequences for Britain, and the rest of the world, may be felt well into 2027.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has placed an 82% probability on El Niño conditions emerging between May and July this year, climbing to 96% by December. What has forecasters particularly worried is not just that El Niño is coming — it’s how powerful it may become.
Data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific could rise as much as 3°C above normal by autumn. That would rival, and possibly exceed, the strongest El Niño ever recorded — a devastating event in 1877 that triggered famines across Asia, Africa, and South America, killing tens of millions of people.
What Is El Niño — And Why Is This One Different?
El Niño is a natural climate cycle that occurs every two to seven years, driven by a weakening of trade winds across the Pacific. Warm water that normally sits near Australia and Asia drifts eastward, disrupting rainfall patterns, pushing up global temperatures, and triggering extreme weather from drought to flooding worldwide.
But this is not your average El Niño.
“What makes it so dramatic is not the event itself and whether it’s a ‘Super El Niño’ or not, but that it is happening in a dramatically changing climate,” Professor Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, told journalists this week.
In plain terms: El Niño now starts from a much hotter baseline than previous generations experienced. Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have already raised global average temperatures to record highs. A powerful El Niño layered on top could tip the scale into territory no modern weather record has captured.
NOAA meteorologist Nathaniel Johnson described the speed of the transition as “a rare occurrence” — moving from La Niña cooling conditions in winter to a potentially very strong El Niño within a single year.
What the Data Is Showing Right Now
Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific’s critical Niño3.4 monitoring region are already around 0.5°C above normal — one of the early thresholds signalling El Niño onset. Crucially, the subsurface heat building underneath is even more striking.
“The volume and intensity of the subsurface warm water anomalies are about as large as we’ve seen in the historical record,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources.
Over half of current forecast models now point to a sea temperature rise exceeding 2.5°C by autumn — qualifying as a historically powerful event. Some models go further, projecting a rise above 3°C, which would surpass any peak measured since modern records began.
The last “very strong” El Niño, in 2015–2016, saw temperatures rise 2.4°C and contributed to the then-warmest year on record. The previous El Niño in 2023–24 helped push global average temperatures to a record 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels in 2024.
Why 2027 Could Be the Worst Year on Record
El Niño’s full temperature impact typically arrives not in the year it peaks, but the year after — when vast amounts of ocean heat are released into the atmosphere.
Professor Liz Stephens of the University of Reading told the BBC that record global temperatures are probable in 2027, particularly if this event turns out to be very strong. Some analysts go further, warning of an unprecedented “climate shock” if the Pacific warms to the levels ECMWF models are currently projecting.
2026 has already been described by the World Meteorological Organisation as “more out of balance than at any time in observed history.” Wildfires have burned more than 150 million hectares globally since January — double the same period in 2024. Sea surface temperatures neared all-time highs in April, and Arctic sea ice reached its lowest recorded level for a second consecutive year.
What This Means for the UK
While El Niño’s most dramatic direct effects fall on tropical regions, Britain is not immune.
Climate scientists at the Met Office note that El Niño years can increase the likelihood of colder winters in the UK, due to shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. More broadly, the knock-on effects on global food prices, energy costs, and supply chains will be felt across British households.
The UK’s agricultural imports from El Niño-vulnerable regions — including coffee, cocoa, sugar, and rice from South America and Southeast Asia — could face shortages if harvests fail. Energy bills may face upward pressure as global demand for cooling spikes in hotter countries.
The UK government has already scaled back its pledge to the UN’s flagship climate fund, committing half the £1.6 billion promised in 2023 — a move that climate groups say undermines global preparedness at a critical moment.
What Happens in the World’s Most Vulnerable Regions
The humanitarian risks are considerable. India and South Asia face weakened monsoons and intensified heatwaves that threaten food security for hundreds of millions. Eastern and southern Africa risk severe rainfall disruptions. Australia faces heightened bushfire risk and drought. Western coastal South America may face flooding, while the Amazon — already degraded by wildfires and logging across roughly 40% of its area — could experience further catastrophic stress.
Dr Theodore Keeping of Imperial College London warned this week that the combination of an already record-breaking fire year and a forecast strong El Niño “means that we could be looking at a particularly severe fire year” — with consequences for air quality extending hundreds of miles from affected zones.
The Bigger Picture
Professor Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania offered a note of perspective — El Niño is ultimately a temporary boost, he said, not a permanent shift. It will likely oscillate back to La Niña conditions, which cool global temperatures for a year or two.
But the longer-term trajectory remains unchanged. “The thing to worry about is the longer-term, steady warming trend that will continue as long as people continue to burn fossil fuels,” Mann said.
What this El Niño does is bring that future into sharper focus — and earlier than many hoped.
Spring forecasts of El Niño have historically been unreliable. But this year, forecasters note an unusual convergence of confidence across NOAA, ECMWF, and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. The signals, as Swain put it, are consistent.
The question now is not whether a powerful El Niño is coming. It is how strong it will be — and whether governments, communities, and individuals are ready for what follows.
Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ECMWF, World Meteorological Organisation, Imperial College London, University of Reading, California Institute for Water Resources
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