Champions League qualifying rarely offers a tie as intriguing as this one. On Tuesday evening, Croatian champions Dinamo Zagreb welcome Swiss champions FC Thun to the Stadion Maksimir with the second round of qualifying hanging in the balance after a 1-1 draw in Switzerland a week ago.
On paper, this looked like a routine assignment for Dinamo. In reality, Thun — the fairy-tale story of European football this summer — pushed the Croatian giants all the way in the first leg and arrive in Zagreb genuinely believing they can spring one of the shocks of the qualifying rounds.
With no away-goals rule to fall back on, this is now effectively a one-off cup final. Ninety minutes (or possibly more) will decide who moves a step closer to the Champions League league phase and who drops into the Europa League qualifying path. For bettors, that tension creates real value across the match markets — and in this preview, we break down the form, the tactics, the odds and where the smart money should go.
First Leg Recap: Thun Serve Notice, Dinamo Escape
The first leg in Switzerland on 21 July was a warning shot for anyone who assumed Dinamo would cruise through this tie. Thun struck first through striker Brighton Labeau, sending the home crowd into raptures and briefly threatening a famous night. Dinamo, however, showed the experience that comes with decades of European competition. Miha Zajc arrived late in the match to drag the visitors level, firing home in the closing stages to secure a 1-1 draw and shift the balance of the tie back towards Zagreb.
The underlying numbers told a similar story: Dinamo created the better chances over the ninety minutes but were wasteful, while Thun defended with organisation and carried a genuine threat on the counter. It was a result that flattered neither side — and one that sets up Tuesday’s decider perfectly.
Dinamo Zagreb: Form, Strengths and Concerns
Domestic Dominance Restored
Dinamo Zagreb enter this tie as reigning Croatian champions, having reclaimed the SuperSport HNL title in 2025-26 in emphatic style. After surrendering the crown two seasons ago — their first missed title since 2017 — the Zagreb club responded with a season of near-total dominance, finishing a massive eighteen points clear of rivals Hajduk Split. Along the way they put together an eight-match winning run and a twenty-three-game unbeaten streak, underlining just how far ahead of the domestic pack they are.
The Beljo Factor
The headline act is centre-forward Dion Drena Beljo, who finished the 2025-26 Croatian league campaign as top scorer with a remarkable 31 goals. Beljo is the focal point of Dinamo’s expected 4-2-3-1 shape, and if Thun give him space in the box on Tuesday, he has the finishing quality to punish them ruthlessly. Behind him, the likes of Mislav Oršić and Miha Zajc — the first-leg goalscorer — provide creativity and end product from midfield.
Any Weaknesses?
If there is a concern for Dinamo, it is sharpness. Croatian sides are still early in their competitive rhythm at this stage of the summer, and the profligacy on show in the first leg — good chances created, too few taken — is the kind of flaw that can turn a qualifying tie sour. There is also the psychological weight of expectation: an early Champions League exit at the Maksimir would be regarded as a minor disaster in Zagreb, and that pressure can cut both ways.
FC Thun: The Fairy Tale That Refuses to End
Champions Against All Odds
Thun’s story is one of the most romantic in recent European football. The Bernese Oberland club only returned to the Swiss top flight a year ago — and then promptly won the Super League, claiming their first Swiss championship in more than a century of existence. To follow that up by holding the Croatian champions to a draw in their first-ever competitive meeting shows this is a side that simply does not know when it is supposed to be beaten.
Organised, Physical, Dangerous
Under their expected 4-4-2 setup, Thun are compact, aggressive in the duels and direct in transition. Striker Brighton Labeau, who opened the scoring in the first leg, leads the line alongside the experienced Serdar Dursun, while captain-type figures such as Jan Bamert marshal a defence that concedes little cheaply. Statistically, Thun are one of the more combative sides you will see — they commit fouls, they compete for everything, and they make opponents earn every inch.
The Away-Day Question
The genuine question mark is whether Thun can replicate their first-leg performance in a hostile away environment. The Maksimir on a European night, with a passionate home crowd expecting progress, is a different proposition entirely from the Stockhorn Arena. Thun have limited recent experience of this level of continental pressure, and that inexperience is precisely what the betting markets are pricing in.
Head-to-Head Record
This is only the second-ever competitive meeting between the clubs. The full head-to-head reads:
- 21 July 2026: Thun 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb (UCL Qualifying, Second Round, First Leg)
With a sample size of one match and an average of exactly 2.0 goals per game between them, history offers little guidance here — which makes current form, squad quality and home advantage the decisive analytical factors.
Latest Odds: Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun
Bookmakers make the home side strong favourites to win the match on the night. At the time of writing, the markets are broadly shaped as follows (odds fluctuate, so always check your bookmaker before placing a bet):
| Market | Approximate Odds |
| Dinamo Zagreb win | ~1.36 (around 8/25) |
| Draw | ~5.00 (around 4/1) |
| Thun win | ~7.50–9.00 (around 13/2–8/1) |
| Over 2.5 goals | Odds-on at most firms |
| Under 2.5 goals | Slight underdog price |
The implied probability of a Dinamo victory sits above 70%, which reflects both the gulf in squad value and the significance of home advantage. Notably, the Dinamo price has shortened since the first leg, suggesting the market expects the Croatian champions to get the job done at the second attempt.
Key Tactical Battles to Watch
- Beljo vs Thun’s centre-back pairing. A 31-goal striker against a defence built on organisation rather than pace. If Dinamo’s wide players can isolate Beljo against Bamert and his partner in the box, the hosts should score.
- Thun’s counter-attack vs Dinamo’s high line. Chasing the tie at home, Dinamo will push numbers forward. That leaves space in behind — exactly the territory where Labeau and Dursun did their first-leg damage.
- Midfield control. Josip Mišić and Zajc against Thun’s industrious central pair. If Dinamo dictate tempo, Thun will spend the evening defending their box; if the game becomes scrappy and foul-heavy, it suits the Swiss side perfectly.
- Set pieces. In tight qualifying ties, dead balls decide matches. Thun’s physicality makes them a threat from corners, while Dinamo’s delivery from wide areas is a consistent weapon.
Match Prediction: Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 Thun
Everything points towards a home victory, but not a comfortable one. Dinamo have the superior squad, the top-scorer in Beljo, home advantage and the motivation of avoiding an embarrassing early exit. Thun, though, have proven they can score against this defence and will fancy at least one goal on the counter or from a set piece.
Our expectation is a tense, open second leg in which Dinamo’s quality eventually tells — but with Thun contributing to the scoreline. A 2-1 home win, sending Dinamo through to the next qualifying round, is our headline call.
Predicted scoreline: Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 Thun (Dinamo advance)
Best Betting Tips for Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun
Tip 1: Dinamo Zagreb to Win ⭐ (Main Bet)
At around 1.36, the straight home win is short but justified. For better value, consider Dinamo Zagreb -1 on the Asian handicap, which lands if the hosts win by two or more — plausible given their first-leg chance creation and Beljo’s finishing.
Tip 2: Over 2.5 Goals
Both teams scored in the first leg, Dinamo must attack from the outset, and Thun cannot afford to sit back for ninety minutes with the tie level. Three or more goals looks a live runner in a match where neither side benefits from caution.
Tip 3: Both Teams to Score
Thun found the net against Dinamo a week ago and will get at least a handful of transition opportunities as the hosts commit forward. BTTS pairs naturally with a home win in a same-game combination for those seeking a bigger price.
Tip 4 (Value/Long Shot): Dion Drena Beljo Anytime Goalscorer
The most prolific striker in Croatia last season, playing at home, in a match his side must win. If he starts, Beljo anytime scorer is the standout player prop on the card.
Where the Winner Goes Next
The stakes extend beyond Tuesday night. The winner of this tie advances to the third qualifying round of the Champions League, moving within two rounds of the lucrative league phase. The loser is not eliminated from Europe entirely — they drop into Europa League qualifying — but the financial and sporting gap between the two competitions is enormous, which only adds to the intensity we expect at the Maksimir.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun kick off? 7:00 PM UK time (8:00 PM CEST / 6:00 PM UTC) on Tuesday 28 July 2026.
Where is the match being played? Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb, Croatia — Dinamo Zagreb’s home ground.
What happened in the first leg? The first leg in Thun finished 1-1, with Brighton Labeau scoring for the hosts and Miha Zajc equalising late for Dinamo.
Who is favourite to qualify? Dinamo Zagreb are strong favourites with the bookmakers, priced at around 1.36 to win the second leg.
Is there an away-goals rule? No. UEFA abolished the away-goals rule, so if the second leg ends level, the tie goes to extra time and, if needed, penalties.
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