World Cup Betting Hits Record Levels at U.S. Sportsbooks in Week One
The 2026 FIFA World Cup has only been running for a week, and U.S. sportsbooks are already calling it the biggest soccer betting event the regulated American market has ever seen. Driven by an opening win from the U.S. men’s national team, a wave of star goals, and a string of upset draws that swung money back to the bookmakers, betting on the tournament exploded out of the gate — and operators say the pace is on track to rival the country’s marquee betting weekends.
A record-setting first week, by the numbers
According to reporting from ESPN’s David Purdum, a longtime gambling-industry journalist, betting interest on the World Cup “exploded” in the opening week, with sportsbooks and prediction markets across the country reporting record action. The headline claim came from Hard Rock Bet, which said tournament wagering was on pace to eclipse the Super Bowl and March Madness combined — a striking benchmark in a market where the NFL has long been king.
The most telling single data point: the United States’ 4-1 opening win over Paraguay was the most heavily bet match of the entire first week. BetMGM reported the U.S. opener attracted roughly 1.5 times more betting volume than the next-closest match, Brazil vs. Morocco. Hard Rock Bet went further, saying the U.S. game drew more individual bets than any soccer match in the company’s history, with more than 90% of the money wagered on the match backing the Americans.
That lopsided patriotic action turned the U.S. opener into a losing day for several books — exactly the kind of high-volume, public-heavy event operators both love (for the handle) and brace for (for the liability). Since that Friday win, the U.S. has attracted more bets to lift the trophy than any other nation at BetMGM, even though it remains a long shot on the outright board.
The projections behind the hype
The record first week did not come out of nowhere. Heading into the tournament, the numbers analysts were floating were already staggering.
Gaming research firm Eilers & Krejcik projected that licensed U.S. sportsbooks would handle between $2.82 billion and $4.3 billion across the full tournament — a range that, at the top end, would exceed the legal handle of any single Super Bowl to date and make the 2026 World Cup the largest soccer betting event in U.S. history. To put that in perspective, American bettors placed an estimated $400 million in legal wagers on the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Even the midpoint of this year’s projection, around $3.5 billion, would be roughly nine times the 2022 total.
The two market leaders are expected to capture the bulk of that action. Deutsche Bank projected that FanDuel alone would handle approximately $1.3 billion in World Cup wagers, with DraftKings close behind at around $1.1 billion. The global picture dwarfs even those figures: estimates from analysts cited across the industry put worldwide regulated wagering on the tournament somewhere between $50 billion and $60 billion.
None of this is happening in a vacuum. U.S. sportsbooks generated roughly $3.82 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2026 alone, putting the industry on pace for another record year before the World Cup ever kicked off.
Why the 2026 World Cup is different
Several structural factors explain why this tournament is producing numbers no previous World Cup could.
Legal access has exploded. Mobile sports betting is now live in 39 states, up from roughly 30 during the 2022 cycle. Tens of millions of Americans can now place a legal wager from their phone — a fundamentally larger audience than existed four years ago.
The tournament is on home soil and in friendly time zones. For the first time, the World Cup is being staged entirely across North America — 16 host cities spread over the United States, Mexico, and Canada. That means group-stage meetings run from midday through the early evening on the East Coast, peak hours for sportsbook traffic, rather than the early-morning kickoffs that suppressed wagering on European- and Middle East-hosted tournaments.
The field is bigger than ever. The expanded 48-team format produces 104 meetings over five weeks — far more betting opportunities, more props, more parlays, and more “must-watch” moments than the 64-match tournaments of the past. With the U.S. men’s national team playing in front of a home crowd, casual and first-time bettors have an obvious rooting (and betting) interest.
Taken together, these conditions created the perfect environment for a record. The first week suggests the projections may prove conservative.
The week’s biggest betting stories
Beyond the aggregate handle, week one delivered the kind of dramatic swings that make a major tournament so compelling for both bettors and bookmakers.
The draws struck back. After the U.S. opener bruised the books, the sportsbooks bounced back hard the following Monday, when all four meetings on the slate ended in draws — including a stunning 0-0 result by Cape Verde against heavily favored Spain. Mark Bickerdike, head of soccer for Caesars Sportsbook, called it a significant result for the trading floor, noting that Spain had been backed heavily across both straight bets and parlays. Draws are notoriously unpopular with the betting public, so a day full of them is typically a windfall for operators.
There were exceptions. Caesars reported that a bettor in Kentucky turned a $20 four-leg parlay — all four Monday meetings to end in a draw — into a $11,646 payout, a tidy reward for backing the outcome most bettors instinctively avoid.
The stars delivered. The following day, the betting public loaded up on the tournament’s biggest names to find the net, and got paid. Lionel Messi recorded a hat trick after sitting at +1750 to do so at Caesars Sportsbook, while Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé — both odds-on favorites to score — each notched braces. Mbappé’s second goal, in stoppage time of France’s 3-1 win over Senegal, completed a life-changing ticket for one Hard Rock Bet customer: a Florida bettor’s $25,000 three-leg parlay paid out $522,112.50, with the final leg riding on France to win by two or more goals.
France, unsurprisingly, remains the tournament favorite, listed at around 4-1 to win it all.
Prediction markets join the surge
One of the clearest signs that 2026 is a different era is the explosive growth of regulated prediction markets running alongside traditional sportsbooks.
The Saturday of the first week — which featured Game 5 of the NBA Finals plus three World Cup meetings — marked the first time prediction market Kalshi surpassed $1 billion in volume in a single day, according to prediction-market tracker DeFi Rate. Kalshi hit the milestone again the following Sunday.
DraftKings also reported a sharp jump in activity on its own prediction market. Johnny Avello, the company’s sportsbook director, told ESPN, “A lot of days, we’re kind of doubling what we’ve done in the past,” pointing to the company’s ability to offer trading in major states like California, Texas, and Florida as a driver of the surge. Those states represent enormous populations where traditional mobile sportsbooks remain unavailable — meaning prediction markets are reaching bettors that conventional books still cannot.
What sportsbooks are saying
Across the industry, the tone is a mix of excitement and respect for the volatility. Operators love the volume, but a single-elimination soccer tournament with heavy public action on favorites can produce big swings in either direction on any given day.
Dom DeBonis, who oversees soccer odds for Circa Sports in Las Vegas, captured the bookmaker’s calm-under-fire mindset ahead of the U.S.’s second match. With star winger Christian Pulisic nursing a leg knock and his status uncertain, DeBonis said he wasn’t overreacting, noting he wouldn’t struggle to take U.S. money regardless — a reflection of just how reliably American bettors back their own team.
That reliability was on full display heading into the U.S.-Australia match, where BetMGM reported that 92% of the money wagered on the game was on the Americans, who opened as a -170 favorite at DraftKings against a +340 underdog.
What’s next for World Cup betting
The group stage runs through late June, with the knockout rounds beginning in early July and the final scheduled for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. As the tournament narrows, expect handle to climb even higher — knockout meetings carry win-or-go-home stakes that drive both casual and sharp interest.
The single biggest variable for the U.S. market is the same one operators have been watching all along: how deep the U.S. men’s national team advances. A strong American run would almost certainly push the total tournament handle toward the upper end of Eilers & Krejcik’s $4.3 billion projection, as bandwagon bettors pile into each successive match. An early exit, by contrast, would likely cool some of the domestic enthusiasm — though the sheer breadth of the 48-team field and the home-time-zone advantage should keep volume strong regardless.
Either way, the first week has already answered the central question heading into the tournament: a mature, widely legal American betting market, handed a World Cup on home soil for the first time, will wager at a scale the country has never seen.
FAQs
How much are Americans betting on the 2026 World Cup? Gaming research firm Eilers & Krejcik projects licensed U.S. sportsbooks will handle between $2.82 billion and $4.3 billion across the full tournament — potentially the largest soccer betting event in U.S. history. That compares with an estimated $400 million wagered legally on the 2022 World Cup.
Which World Cup match has drawn the most betting so far? The United States’ 4-1 win over Paraguay was the most heavily bet match of the first week. BetMGM said it attracted about 1.5 times more action than the next-closest match, and Hard Rock Bet called it the most-bet soccer match in its history.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup? France entered the knockout stretch as the betting favorite, listed at around 4-1 at major sportsbooks, though odds shift after every round.
Why is World Cup betting bigger in 2026 than in past years? Three reasons: legal mobile betting is now available in 39 states (up from about 30 in 2022); the tournament is being played across North America in U.S.-friendly time zones; and the expanded 48-team, 104-match format creates far more betting opportunities.
What are prediction markets, and why do they matter this World Cup? Prediction markets like Kalshi let users trade on the outcome of events and operate in some large states where traditional sportsbooks are not yet legal. During the first week, Kalshi surpassed $1 billion in single-day volume for the first time, underscoring how much the betting landscape has broadened.
About The Author
